The Signal and the NoiseThe Signal and the Noise
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The Signal and the Noise

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Nate Silver

Experts across various fields often make remarkably inaccurate predictions, despite expressing excessive confidence in their accuracy. They analyze vast amounts of data to find connections, but given the ever-growing volume of data available, this approach is likely to uncover coincidental patterns that will ultimately prove false.

hashtagfinance
hashtageconomics
hashtagbusiness
hashtagmathematics
clock10 min
bite5 Bites
target5 Insight

What's it about?

The Signal and the Noise provides insights into the reasons behind the frequent and dramatic failures of expert predictions in today's world and explores which statistical and probability tools are better suited for forecasting real-world events.

Book summary

Experts across various fields often make remarkably inaccurate predictions, despite expressing excessive confidence in their accuracy. They analyze vast amounts of data to find connections, but given the ever-growing volume of data available, this approach is likely to uncover coincidental patterns that will ultimately prove false.

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Economists often struggle­ with accurately predicting the e­conomy and gauging the certainty of their own pre­dictions.

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Relying solely on statistics for forecasting is insufficient; human analysis remains a necessary component.

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The financial crisis was further fueled by excessive optimism displayed by both the US government and banks.

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Bayes' theorem enables you to logically adjust your beliefs when new information becomes available.

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Predictions that are­ careful, detailed, and varie­d usually outperform those that are rash.

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