Book summary
Don A. Moore is a professor at the University of California, Berkeley's Haas School of Business. He lectures and consults on leadership, negotiations, and decision-making. Moore has coauthored a textbook on managerial decision-making and has published columns in several prominent publications, including the Wall Street Journal, Fortune, and the Harvard Business Review.
Confidence is a potent weapon – yet it must be earned. When you're making choices, don't forget to take into account a variety of scenarios so you can be more well-informed and better adjust your confidence going forward. False confidence will be quickly revealed, while authentic self-assurance comes from recognizing your limitations.
Create a likelihood prediction.
The next time you're tackling a major task or working towards a long-term objective, jot down your estimation of how probable it is for you to finish the job within several different time frames. This exercise will likely provide you with a clearer understanding of the actual time required. Once you're finished, you can review your initial forecast and gain insight into whether you have a tendency to over- or underestimate tasks, and the reasons behind it.
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