Destined for War

Résumé du livre

Graham Allison is a renowned scholar, political scientist, and the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He serves as the Director of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and leads Harvard University’s long-running Thucydides Trap Project.

China's rapid rise and the United States' determination to maintain its global dominance mirror historical patterns of tension between rising and established powers, often culminating in conflict. Historical examples, such as Spain and Portugal's Treaty of Tordesillas, Britain's diplomatic response to America's ascent, and Cold War dynamics, reveal that peaceful resolutions are possible but rare. Potential flashpoints today include Taiwan's independence movement, territorial disputes in the South China Sea, North Korea's instability, and economic conflicts, all of which could escalate under current geopolitical conditions. Drawing parallels to the Peloponnesian War and other historical rivalries, the redistribution of power often destabilizes existing structures, transforming manageable disputes into major conflicts. As China continues its meteoric economic and industrial growth, challenging the U.S.-led global order, the question remains whether history will repeat itself or if diplomacy can avert the so-called Thucydides Trap.

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